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AlgerOn theMoney
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AI and the Future of Work
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Many fear that the potential productivity gains from artificial intelligence (AI) could lead to significant job losses. What lessons can history teach us about the impact of technological advances on employment?

There has been much talk recently about the large productivity gains artificial intelligence (AI) could achieve. Some believe these productivity gains will enable companies to significantly reduce jobs, creating fear amongst workers that they may become unemployed. What can history tell us about how technology and productivity have impacted employment?​​​

Chart showing share of U.S. jobs​​​​​
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  • In the late 19th century, the invention of the tractor led to a significant increase in agricultural productivity. As Warren Buffett noted in the Berkshire Hathaway 2015 annual report, in 1900, 11 million farm workers produced 2.7 billion bushels of the leading crop, corn, with an output of approximately 250 bushels per worker per year.1​ Over the years, advances in fertilization, seed quality, and automation have not only dramatically increased yields but also reduced the workforce needed. Today, these advancements allow for the production of over 15 billion bushels of corn, with an average output of over 6,000 bushels per worker— more than a 2,500% increase in output per worker!
  • While productivity gains did hurt jobs in agriculture, many farm workers relocated to cities and found work in manufacturing, as shown in the chart above. Then, as productivity and globalization impacted the manufacturing workforce, Americans gravitated to service jobs, which now represent roughly two thirds of jobs in the U.S.
  • Will AI’s productivity impact knowledge workers? In our view, it may increase output and income for some, while making other jobs obsolete. However, as history has shown and as we have written about, technological innovations often lead to the creation of new jobs. In the near-term, we believe AI will be complementary for several professions, such as health care professionals, structural engineers, and wealth advisors, and it is unlikely to completely replace humans in most professions. While we are still in the early stages of this AI revolution, emerging fields like biotechnology engineering, space tourism, or 3D printing may offer new occupations over the long run. Whatever they turn out to be, we believe Americans are likely to create new innovative jobs that leverage AI, driving economic growth and potentially new investment opportunities.
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1Buffett, W. (2015). Annual report 2015 (p. 21). Berkshire Hathaway Inc. https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2015ar/2015ar.pdf
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The views expressed are the views of Fred Alger Management, LLC (“FAM”) and its affiliates as of May ​2024. These views are subject to change at any time and may not represent the views of all portfolio management teams. These views should not be interpreted as a guarantee of the future performance of the markets, any security or any funds managed by FAM. These views are not meant to provide investment advice and should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell securities.

​​Risk Disclosures: Investing in the stock market involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Growth stocks may be more volatile than other stocks as their prices tend to be higher in relation to their companies’ earnings and may be more sensitive to market, political, and economic developments. Local, regional or global events such as environmental or natural disasters, war, terrorism, pandemics, outbreaks of infectious diseases and similar public health threats, recessions, or other events could have a significant impact on investments. Investing in companies of small capitalizations involves the risk that such issuers may have limited product lines or financial resources, lack management depth, or have limited liquidity. Assets may be focused in a small number of holdings, making them susceptible to risks associated with a single economic, political or regulatory event than a more diversified portfolio. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investors whose reference currency differs from that in which the underlying assets are invested may be subject to exchange rate movements that alter the value of their investments.

Investing in innovation is not without risk and there is no guarantee that investments in research and development will result in a company gaining market share or achieving enhanced revenue. Also, developing technologies to displace older technologies or create new markets may not in fact do so, and there may be sector specific risks as well. As is the case with any industry, there will be winners and losers that emerge and investors therefore need to conduct a significant amount of due diligence on individual companies to assess these risks and opportunities. Companies involved in, or exposed to, AI-related businesses may have limited product lines, markets, financial resources, or personnel as they face intense competition and potentially rapid product obsolescence.​ These companies may be substantially exposed to the market and business risks of other industries or sectors and may be adversely affected by negative developments impacting those companies, industries, or sectors, as well as by loss or impairment of intellectual property rights or misappropriation of their technology. Companies that utilize AI could face reputational harm, competitive harm, and legal liability, and/or an adverse effect on business operations as content, analyses, or recommendations that AI applications produce may be deficient, inaccurate, biased, misleading or incomplete, may lead to errors, and may be used in negligent or criminal ways. Companies exploring new technologies may face regulatory, political or legal challenges that may adversely impact their competitive positioning and financial prospects.

​​Important Information for US Investors: This material must be accompanied by the most recent fund fact sheet(s) if used in connection with the sale of mutual fund and ETF shares. Fred Alger & Company, LLC serves as distributor of the Alger mutual funds.

​​Important Information for UK and EU Investors: This material is directed at investment professionals and qualified investors (as defined by MiFID/FCA regulations). It is for information purposes only and has been prepared and is made available for the benefit investors. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which it is not authorized or permitted, or to anyone who would be an unlawful recipient, and is only intended for use by original recipients and addressees. The original recipient is solely responsible for any actions in further distributing this material and should be satisfied in doing so that there is no breach of local legislation or regulation. ​Certain products may be subject to restrictions with regard to certain persons or in certain countries under national regulations applicable to such persons or countries.

Alger Management, Ltd. (85 Gresham Street, Suite 308, London EC2V 7NQ, UK) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, for the distribution of regulated financial products and services. FAM and/or Weatherbie Capital, LLC, U.S. registered investment advisors, serve as sub-portfolio manager to financial products distributed by Alger Management, Ltd.

​​Alger Group Holdings, LLC (parent company of FAM and Alger Management, Ltd.), FAM, and Fred Alger & Company, LLC are not authorized persons for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom (“FSMA”) and this material has not been approved by an authorized person for the purposes of Section 21(2)(b) of the FSMA.

Important information for Investors in Israel: This material is provided in Israel only to investors of the type listed in the first schedule of the Securities Law, 1968 (the “Securities Law”) and the Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing and Investment Portfolio Management Law, 1995. The Fund units will not be sold to investors who are not of the type listed in the first schedule of the Securities Law.

The following positions represent firm wide assets under management as of March 31, 2024: Berkshire Hathaway Inc, 0.00%; Deutsche Bank AG, 0.00%.

Alger pays compensation to third party marketers to sell various strategies to prospective investors.​​

Fred Alger Management, LLC 100 Pearl Street, New York, NY, 10004 / www.alger.com​ / 800.305.8547 (Retail) / 800.223.3810 (Institutional)

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ETF Investors

This ETF is different from traditional ETFs.

Traditional ETFs tell the public what assets they hold each day. This ETF will not. This may create additional risks for your investment. Specifically:

You may have to pay more money to trade the ETF’s shares. This ETF will provide less information to traders, who tend to charge more for trades when they have less information.

The price you pay to buy ETF shares on an exchange may not match the value of the ETF’s portfolio. The same is true when you sell shares. These price differences may be greater for this ETF compared to other ETFs because it provides less information to traders.

These additional risks may be even greater in bad or uncertain market conditions.

The differences between this ETF and other ETFs may also have advantages. By keeping certain information about the ETF confidential, this ETF may face less risk that other traders can predict or copy its investment strategy. This may improve the ETF’s performance. If other traders are able to copy or predict the ETF’s investment strategy, however, this may hurt the ETF’s performance. For additional information regarding the unique attributes and risks of this ETF, please refer to the prospectus.

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