Will higher interest rates bring down stock prices? Many investors are concerned about rising rates but an examination of current stock valuations relative to bonds reveals that stocks haven’t priced in how low interest rates have become and therefore may not suffer as rates climb.
It is a cardinal rule of finance that with higher potential return comes more potential risk. But how have the ranges of returns of various asset classes actually compared over time? The historical data may surprise investors and justify taking a second look at asset allocation.
A topical discussion in many publications may have you “spooked”: the yield curve has been flattening. However, it is important to note that even if the yield curve does invert, equity markets may first deliver a “treat.”
This week marks the 100th edition of Alger On the Money, a program that strives to offer valuable insights and education to our clients. In honor of this milestone, we look back on a century of earnings growth and the stock market returns it has driven.
New product adoption is occurring at a much faster rate than ever before because the digital economy creates larger markets that are easier to access. What does this trend mean for the economy and investing? More disruption may be in store.
A powerful wave of bond flows has been crashing over equities for years now, but what would happen if the tide changes? If interest rates have already bottomed and bond fund returns remain low, equities could benefit from an ensuing great fund flow rotation.
As change accelerates and the internet brings people together, the scale at which we communicate and innovate has become much larger and faster, leaving behind a trail of information that is very valuable to many companies.
While higher valuations for growth stocks relative to the broader market cause some investors anxiety, historical data suggests current valuations may produce solid long-term annualized returns.
With a world of information at our fingertips, attention is at a premium. At the same time, digital interfaces, e.g., computers, tablets and smartphones, are cutting out the middleman, allowing brands to communicate directly with consumers in unprecedented ways. The result is increased digital advertising spending.
The market backdrop of low interest rates and strong earnings growth may be favorable for equities in 2018 but on November 6 mid-term elections will decide the fate of hundreds of seats in the U.S. Congress. How might the market react?
In 1993 the Dow Jones Industrial Average was under 4,000; it seems like a different era. But that is how far back we have to go in the evolution of the internet to find a comparable point in the growth of the new asset class, cryptoassets. If that comparison is fair, there may be considerable growth ahead in cryptoassets.
This Labor Day workers have good reason to celebrate. For the first time on record, the number of job openings exceeds the number of unemployed. As the labor market tightens, workers should increasingly find themselves in the economic driver’s seat.
The yield curve has a strong track record of predicting recessions. Recently the Federal Reserve published a paper that shows a shorter term yield curve is a more accurate forecaster of recessions than the traditional yield curve. However, the short-term yield curve tells a different story.
Seven years ago Marc Andreesen wrote that “software is eating the world.” At the time, software investment had already seen considerable gains. Since then, growth in software investment has been so strong that it likely comes as a surprise to anyone who didn’t predict the vast digital revolution taking place. The digital revolution may be in its early innings.
Various periods in history have been marked by fears of trade wars. Indeed, the cover of Time magazine on October 7, 1985 depicts Uncle Sam with arms outstretched as if to stop free trade dead in its tracks, amidst the caption, “Trade Wars.” However, before and since that period, and for much of history, tariffs have declined as the world becomes more interconnected.
The emergence of eSports has some investors excited about the potentially massive market this new form of entertainment may become; eSports may one day even disrupt legacy sports. eSports consists of people watching—and sometimes paying to watch—other people play video games in a competitive environment, with meaningful prize money opportunities for winning championships.
India is undergoing a digital revolution that is transforming the 1.3 billion-person country. At the heart of this dynamic change is Aadhaar, a voluntary, unique proof of identity system based upon demographic and biometric information. Available to all residents of India, Aadhaar is the largest biometric-based identification system in the world.
Emerging technology is taking off at an impressive rate. We don’t mean early stage technology that is being used in developed markets but rather existing technology being adopted in emerging markets. The sector composition of what drives emerging markets is thus changing rapidly, carrying implications for investors.
Many investors are fearful of the amount of debt in the U.S. and the rest of the world. While it is true that debt levels are elevated, debt service, or the share of income used for interest payments and amortizations, is quite low relative to history. The two metrics tell very different stories about the economy.
When Americans hit the beach and fire up their grills this July 4th there will be much to celebrate. While the U.S. leads the world in many industries, its strong position in technology may be among the most important factors in its future success.
Contrary to popular belief, focused portfolios, or those with 50 or fewer securities, have not historically produced more risk than traditional portfolios over 3-, 5-, and 10-year periods according to a recent Greenwich Associates study.1 Additionally, institutional investors believe such portfolios offer greater alpha potential.
Does it seem like technology is moving faster over time? It’s not your imagination; it is. Innovations are being developed more quickly and diffusing through our society more quickly than ever before with dramatic consequences for economic growth and investing.
Global funding for virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) firms has nearly tripled to $3.8 billion since 2015. Companies that adopt these technologies can disrupt their industries and potentially create investment opportunities.
Why has the current economic expansion lasted so long and when will it end? A big part of the answer is the depth of the recession that preceded it and the rate of the recovery thus far.
The upcoming Memorial Day holiday merits an examination of how defense spending has changed over time and how the government is currently allocating its defense budget.
While economic growth appears promising and inflation is accelerating, monetary policy has not yet become restrictive as compared to historical levels. In fact, today the real federal funds rate is roughly 0%, which means the economy may have capacity for further expansion.
The performance of actively managed funds relative to passively managed funds has been shown to be cyclical, with recent signs indicating conditions may be ripe for the cycle to favor active managers, creating an environment for active to potentially outperform.
Federal government deficits typically occur in weak economic environments, not in periods of strong growth such as we are now enjoying. Deficit spending would boost an economy with high unemployment but its effects on the current economy may accelerate inflation.
Economic growth can flourish in a free trade environment; however, ongoing international trade issues are unlikely to derail the global economic expansion underway. A potential consequence is that some companies may find themselves at an advantage while their competitors face challenges.
Innovation is not only making an impact on companies but on the environment, including the expected reduction of carbon dioxide. The implications may appeal to investors interested in harnessing the potential benefits of environmentally responsible technology.
Later this year two major index providers will change their widely used sector and industry classification system. There will be substantial implications, given the trillions of dollars that invest according to this framework, and a potential opportunity for investors.
For the first time in more than a decade, we expect acceleration in nominal GDP growth to 5%. While the media tends to reference real GDP, nominal GDP reflects the impact of inflation. Corporate revenues are defined in nominal terms and with profit margins running high, revenue growth will be a key driver of future earnings.
The compensation survey of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) is typically a leading indicator of wage growth. It recently reached a multi-decade high, signaling that a likely increase in wage growth lies ahead. Despite the possibility of higher inflation, this may be good news for the U.S economy because higher wages can lead to increased consumer spending and ultimately drive up revenues for corporate America.
After posting strong results last year, emerging markets equities may be poised to rise further in 2018 with the International Monetary Fund forecasting accelerated growth surpassing that of developed markets once again.
Artificial intelligence (AI) may sound like an adversary in a science fiction novel but in reality it has become an extremely valuable business tool. Companies can now process mammoth amounts of data to discern trends and develop insights that help them make real-time decisions and more accurate forecasts.
Currently a number of forces are weighing on inflation, allowing the Fed to be patient in its tightening path. Given that every major recession of the past 75 years has followed significant Fed Funds rate tightening or inflation acceleration, or both, we believe a recession is not imminent.
Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to the ability of computers to execute functions that typically require human intelligence, such as visual perception, speech recognition, decision-making and language translation. As AI capabilities steadily expand, business as we know it is likely to undergo a large transformation at the hands of increased automation and improved forecasting.
The past three decades have seen unprecedented flows into fixed income funds. Throughout that time, however, U.S. equities have outperformed fixed income regardless of market events. Comparing the last 30 years of equity performance to that of investment grade bonds makes a strong case for the value creation potential of equities.
Digital businesses exhibit network effects, which refer to the rise in a business’s value with each additional user it acquires. Other examples include the telephone during its early days and currently the internet. Understanding the scale and growth rates that the network effect brings to today’s largest global internet companies is critical when choosing investments in these companies.
A record number of foreign countries are expected to generate economic growth in 2017, which may contribute strong earnings growth to U.S. companies and provide additional support to the ongoing bull market.
Cloud computing provides people and companies ubiquitous access to shared resources, which has resulted in tremendous economy of scale. This scale creates a virtuous cycle of lower cost and better outcomes that is likely to allow the technology to continue growing rapidly well into the future.
The Internet of Things (IoT) is happening now. In our lifetime this network of everyday devices and appliances equipped with computer chips and sensors will proliferate. By collecting and transmitting data through the internet, IoT is generating data that is being used to make significant improvements to productivity in industries as diverse as health care and retail.
The science of cryptography allows parties to securely transmit information or value across insecure channels. The relatively new underlying blockchain technology has given rise to a new asset class, cryptoassets, which is increasingly exchanged in a rapidly growing market with the potential to transform multiple industries.
The resurgence in earnings combined with future potential tax cuts may drive an acceleration in business spending that could outpace the broader economy. Gains in labor productivity would likely follow, creating an opportunity for investors to reposition themselves for a new wave of growth.
As we approach December, it seems appropriate to ask: does the holiday season bring gifts to investors? Statistically speaking, it often has begun a stretch of relatively higher stock market returns. While the past is no guarantee of the future, examining historical patterns can help set expectations at this traditionally auspicious time.
As more and more devices are created with internet access and built-in sensors, technology costs are declining and connected device adoption is expected to skyrocket. The likely beneficiaries of the mobile internet revolution are companies that thrive on the utilization of massive amounts of personalized data and those that are poised to harness widespread automation.
Being the epicenter of venture capital (VC) investment is a factor in why the U.S. is an excellent place to find innovative companies rapidly growing their earnings. Investors looking for companies at the forefront of their industry should consider opportunities in the American market.
Washington lawmakers are considering changes to the tax code that could result in a large amount of cash returning to the U.S. According to Goldman Sachs, nearly $1 trillion could be eligible for repatriation, allowing U.S.-based companies to deploy more money in even more productive ways at home. Why does this matter and where should investors look for investment opportunities?
Small cap stocks have been picking up speed in earnings per share (EPS) growth compared to large cap stocks and many anticipate that this trend will continue. Developing tailwinds support these expectations of future gains for small cap stocks.
Many people perceive the act of saving as requiring the sacrifice of current pleasures amid the uncertainty of predicting an unknowable future. Fortunately, even a minor adjustment to an existing savings plan combined with smart investing can yield material results.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is designed to capture peaks and troughs in the business cycle and help forecast turning points. Its favorable performance this year implies positive news for investors.
The U.S. unemployment rate has receded from its 2009 high of 10.0% to 4.4% or roughly seven million people. People who have left the labor force altogether actually outnumber those whom the Bureau of Labor Statistics considers unemployed. As a result, the labor market may not be as tight as it appears and the country may have an untapped resource at its fingertips.
Small cap equities have historically been less followed by Wall Street research analysts than large cap equities. The scarcity of small cap coverage creates opportunities for investors and portfolio managers who are committed to doing in-depth research on these companies.
China may once have lagged the rest of the world in assuming its slice of the digital economy but it has more than made up for lost time. Its future as a formidable leader of the global internet space has many investors surprised and excited.
Market capitalization is one of the basic characteristics investors consider when constructing their portfolios. While each size category possesses unique merits, investors should consider an allocation to small cap equities as they have historically outperformed relative to large cap equities.
Investors generally expect growth stocks to have higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios than value stocks but not everyone is aware of the reasons why. To understand this difference in valuation, consider the variables that drive P/E multiples: growth, profitability, and risk. Given how favorably growth stocks rate across these measures compared to value stocks, their higher P/Es may be warranted.
Second quarter earnings have seen a significant number of S&P 500 companies beat analysts’ estimates, causing a slew of positive revenue and earnings surprises. The ability of companies to surpass Wall Street’s expectations bodes well not only for the businesses themselves but also for the overall U.S. economy.
This year correlations among equities have moved significantly lower and as a result, we believe active managers are better positioned to beat their benchmarks.
Growth investing has produced persistent and robust outperformance relative to value investing during the past decade. We believe the economic developments that have supported this style divergence may continue to bolster growth over value.
Despite perceptions that investor confidence may be too high, the U.S. market now lacks the exuberance that traditionally accompanies a market top. U.S. equities have typically experienced very large increases during the final years before their peaks and it does not appear that today’s market has reached that threshold.
Identifying equity peaks and valleys has traditionally confounded scores of investors eager to position their portfolios based on their market outlooks. Many investors are now watching for a market decline to create a “buying opportunity” but history suggests that the current bull run may still have legs.
The monetary stimulus and fiscal austerity of recent years appear to be undergoing role reversals. As quantitative easing (QE) decelerates and fiscal stimulus accelerates around the world, investors should reconsider their asset allocations.
Among areas of the economy experiencing intense change, certain industries with high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios have outperformed, a result of strong innovation and vibrant earnings growth. Rather than focus on P/Es, investors should assess earnings growth potential and the consequences of innovation.
Hedged equity may be appealing now that the Fed has raised rates and is expected to continue doing so. As higher interest rates can also hurt the performance of bonds, investors might consider shifting assets from fixed income to hedged equity.
Innovation is happening at an exponential pace and is changing industries faster than ever before. This has profound implications for where investors are likely to find potential opportunities.
The output gap is a powerful tool that currently indicates the U.S. economy has potential for expansion, which could support equities in the foreseeable future.
ESG investments have strong potential for mitigating risk by providing earnings stability. Highly rated ESG companies may not only benefit society—they may benefit your portfolio too.
The volume of U.S. regulations is at a historical high. Thus, the potential for Washington to initiate reforms that can reduce regulation and help lower costs for U.S. businesses is also high. This has benefits for many companies, small or large, and for equity investors.
Valuations for larger cap growth stocks may give pause to some investors, but history suggests that current price-to-earnings ratios indicate the asset class remains attractive.
Annual spending on healthcare comprises an ever larger portion of U.S. GDP. Innovation in healthcare science and technology can curtail these increases by reducing costs and increasing the efficiency and quality of care, thus benefiting patients and investors.
In the U.S., a broad geographic range of home price appreciation may drive improved consumer spending — and the economy.
This earnings season, Wall Street analysts expect S&P 500 EPS growth up 12% year-over-year in 1Q17, marking the longest period of earnings acceleration in over five years as well as the highest growth rate. The trend remains positive for several reasons.
The most innovative companies grow their sales—and their stock prices—faster.
A historically wide disparity exists between equity and bond valuations, setting the stage for three potential scenarios. Under any of these scenarios, we believe, equities would outperform.
Historically, an inverted yield curve has been viewed as a strong indicator of a potential economic recession. Based on this signal, it appears that a recession is unlikely to happen anytime soon.
One of the largest transfers of wealth—an estimated $30 trillion over the next few decades—will occur as Baby Boomers pass money to younger generations. What do you think the younger generations value?
The percentage of active-fund assets outperforming the S&P 500 moves in cycles with outperformance recently hitting a trough. There are reasons to expect improvement.
Recent low correlations of non-U.S. stocks to the S&P 500 Index add to the attractiveness of the developed foreign market and emerging market categories.
Everyone knows that saving for retirement is critical. However, many people may not be aware that a higher credit score can be an important component of an investment strategy and a sizable contributor to a nest egg.
Solid economic data and hopes for fiscal stimulus have led to soaring optimism. As a result, valuation disparities may exist within equities, providing investment opportunities.
Job openings are at their highest level in more than 16 years and outpacing new hires. A strong labor market is the underpinning of a solid economy—and may lead to incremental investment opportunities.
“Wide-moat” companies have strong competitive advantages including the power to maintain large profit margins. A key attribute of wide moat companies is their focus on innovation.
Many view the Dow hitting 20,000 as a symbolic or psychological breakthrough. However, after two years of stagnation, S&P 500 earnings have now passed a more meaningful milestone. Because we believe earnings drive the market, an earnings per share breakout should support stock price records.
Growth, synergy, scale and diversification are among the reasons why many large companies engage in mergers and acquisitions. Smaller companies are frequently their targets.
A recent survey among small businesses points to a surge in confidence following the recent U.S. presidential election. This could continue well into 2017 due to expectations for lower taxes and less regulation brought forth by the new administration.
As U.S. equities continue to hover at all-time highs, investors are continuing to buy. Yet, some stocks have more room to move up than others—specifically the growth stock category, whose premium to value stocks is currently near its lowest level in almost four decades.
Some investors view stock market highs with excitement, others with trepidation. When stocks are higher, many wonder what to do. However, if you have a long-term time horizon, you can put your money to work as the odds of losing money decrease over time.
The underperforming Healthcare sector is likely poised for a turnaround. The last time the sector’s valuation discount to the market was this wide, it outperformed the S&P 500 by over 700 basis points annually over the subsequent five years.
Some proposals by the new administration and House of Representatives Republicans lower corporate tax rates, making U.S. tax rates more in line with global peers. How can you benefit as much as possible from the potential change?
90% of stock market returns over a 10-year period is attributable to
starting price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios. Buying low and selling high in
terms of P/E has historically driven returns.
recently, the acute search for yield had driven more and more money
into fixed income. However, expectations around fiscal stimulus owing to
the U.S. election drove up growth and inflation expectations which seem
to have resulted in a Great Rotation from bonds to equities.