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Boom or Bubble?​​​​

Stock market bubbles occur when investors collectively overvalue equities, often driven by uniform optimism about a new innovation. With AI enthusiasm driving markets higher, we assess if we’re in a bubble by comparing the markets today to past instances.

Stock market bubbles occur when investors collectively overvalue equities, often driven by uniform optimism about a new innovation. With AI enthusiasm driving markets higher, we assess if we’re in a bubble by comparing the markets today to past instances of investor exuberance.

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Chart showing Free cash flow yield based on last 12-month data. 2000 Tech Bubble data is as of end of March 2000 and current data is as of March 15, 2024.​​​​​
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  • The current S&P 500 price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple is elevated relative to history and approaching levels seen around the 2000 technology (tech) bubble; however, the current free cash flow yield is much more attractive, in our view.
  • How can the market appear expensive based on earnings yet attractive based on free cash flow, as depicted in the chart above? The answer lies in the fact that companies today generate more free cash flow per dollar of earnings than they did during the tech bubble.1 In the past, companies primarily invested for future growth through capital expenditures in tangible assets such as property, plant & equipment, which are not reported on a company’s income statement and lower free cash flow relative to net income. Today, companies invest in their future more through intangible assets like research & development, where such spending is already reflected in the income statement and requires no further adjustment to cash flow.
  • For example, the Russell 1000 Growth, which has above-average exposure to intangible investments, has a ratio of free cash flow relative to net income of about 95%.2 Conversely, the Russell 1000 Value, with more exposure to tangible investments, has a ratio below 80%.3
  • ​Compared to the 2000 tech bubble, the S&P 500 appears more reasonably valued based on free cash flow. Moreover, today’s equity market also reveals higher net profit margins, higher return on assets, and a stronger interest coverage ratio.4​ In our view, these facts imply that the exuberance of the 2000 tech bubble is not present in today’s stock market environment.
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1,2,3,4 Data from FactSet as of 6/30/24​.

The views expressed are the views of Fred Alger Management, LLC (“FAM”) and its affiliates as of July ​​2024. These views are subject to change at any time and may not represent the views of all portfolio management teams. These views should not be interpreted as a guarantee of the future performance of the markets, any security or any funds managed by FAM. These views are not meant to provide investment advice and should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell securities.

​​Risk Disclosures: Investing in the stock market involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Growth stocks may be more volatile than other stocks as their prices tend to be higher in relation to their companies’ earnings and may be more sensitive to market, political, and economic developments. Local, regional or global events such as environmental or natural disasters, war, terrorism, pandemics, outbreaks of infectious diseases and similar public health threats, recessions, or other events could have a significant impact on investments. Investing in companies of small capitalizations involves the risk that such issuers may have limited product lines or financial resources, lack management depth, or have limited liquidity. Assets may be focused in a small number of holdings, making them susceptible to risks associated with a single economic, political or regulatory event than a more diversified portfolio. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investors whose reference currency differs from that in which the underlying assets are invested may be subject to exchange rate movements that alter the value of their investments. Investing in innovation is not without risk and there is no guarantee that investments in research and development will result in a company gaining market share or achieving enhanced revenue. Companies exploring new technologies may face regulatory, political or legal challenges that may adversely impact their competitive positioning and financial prospects. Also, developing technologies to displace older technologies or create new markets may not in fact do so, and there may be sector specific risks as well. As is the case with any industry, there will be winners and losers that emerge and investors therefore need to conduct a significant amount of due diligence on individual companies to assess these risks and opportunities.

​​Important Information for US Investors: This material must be accompanied by the most recent fund fact sheet(s) if used in connection with the sale of mutual fund and ETF shares. Fred Alger & Company, LLC serves as distributor of the Alger mutual funds.

​​Important Information for UK and EU Investors: This material is directed at investment professionals and qualified investors (as defined by MiFID/FCA regulations). It is for information purposes only and has been prepared and is made available for the benefit investors. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which it is not authorized or permitted, or to anyone who would be an unlawful recipient, and is only intended for use by original recipients and addressees. The original recipient is solely responsible for any actions in further distributing this material and should be satisfied in doing so that there is no breach of local legislation or regulation.

Certain products may be subject to restrictions with regard to certain persons or in certain countries under national regulations applicable to such persons or countries.

Alger Management, Ltd. (85 Gresham Street, Suite 308, London EC2V 7NQ, UK) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, for the distribution of regulated financial products and services. FAM and/or Weatherbie Capital, LLC, U.S. registered investment advisors, serve as sub-portfolio manager to financial products distributed by Alger Management, Ltd.

​​Alger Group Holdings, LLC (parent company of FAM and Alger Management, Ltd.), FAM, and Fred Alger & Company, LLC are not authorized persons for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom (“FSMA”) and this material has not been approved by an authorized person for the purposes of Section 21(2)(b) of the FSMA.

Important information for Investors in Israel: This material is provided in Israel only to investors of the type listed in the first schedule of the Securities Law, 1968 (the “Securities Law”) and the Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing and Investment Portfolio Management Law, 1995. The Fund units will not be sold to investors who are not of the type listed in the first schedule of the Securities Law.
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S&P 500® is an index of large company stocks considered to be representative of the U.S. stock market. S&P SmallCap 600 Growth Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of small-cap growth stocks. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased barometer for the small-cap segment. Investors cannot invest directly in any index. Index performance does not reflect deductions for taxes. The performance data quoted represents past performance, which is not an indication or a guarantee of future results.

Frank Russell Company (“Russell”) is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Russell® is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and / or Russell ratings or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and / or Russell ratings and / or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell’s express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication.

The S&P indexes are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Fred Alger Management, LLC and its affiliates. Copyright 2024 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a subsidiary of S&P Global Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. S&P® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.

FactSet is an independent source, which Alger believes to be a reliable source. FAM, however, makes no representation that it is complete or accurate.

Price-to-earnings is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its earnings per share.

Free cash flow is the cash a company generates after taking into consideration cash outflows that support its operations and maintain its capital assets.

Free cash flow yield is calculated by taking the free cash flow per share divided by the current share price.

Return on Assets is a metric that indicates a company’s profitability in relation to its total assets. It is calculated by dividing a company’s net income by its total assets.

The interest coverage ratio is a metric used to measure a company’s ability to pay its debt. It is calculated by dividing a company’s earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) by its interest expense during a given period. ​

Alger pays compensation to third party marketers to sell various strategies to prospective investors.​​

Fred Alger Management, LLC 100 Pearl Street, New York, NY, 10004 / www.alger.com​ / 800.305.8547 (Retail) / 800.223.3810 (Institutional)

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ETF Investors

This ETF is different from traditional ETFs.

Traditional ETFs tell the public what assets they hold each day. This ETF will not. This may create additional risks for your investment. Specifically:

You may have to pay more money to trade the ETF’s shares. This ETF will provide less information to traders, who tend to charge more for trades when they have less information.

The price you pay to buy ETF shares on an exchange may not match the value of the ETF’s portfolio. The same is true when you sell shares. These price differences may be greater for this ETF compared to other ETFs because it provides less information to traders.

These additional risks may be even greater in bad or uncertain market conditions.

The differences between this ETF and other ETFs may also have advantages. By keeping certain information about the ETF confidential, this ETF may face less risk that other traders can predict or copy its investment strategy. This may improve the ETF’s performance. If other traders are able to copy or predict the ETF’s investment strategy, however, this may hurt the ETF’s performance. For additional information regarding the unique attributes and risks of this ETF, please refer to the prospectus.

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