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Labor Day Cooldown​​​?​

As we assess the weakening employment market post-Labor Day, a key question remains: Can the Fed stabilize the labor market, or will it continue to soften?

In his August 2024 Jackson Hole speech, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell stated, “we do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.” As we reflect on the state of the employment market following Labor Day, will the Fed succeed in stabilizing the labor market, or will it soften further?​


​​​​​​Chart showing increasing the labor market is cooling​​​​​​​​
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  • Various economic indicators suggest that the labor market is cooling. The chart above shows that the percentage of respondents who believe jobs are plentiful is at its lowest level since the pandemic and significantly below pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, wage growth has moderated, while both jobless claims and the unemployment rate have risen in recent months. In fact, the unemployment rate has increased enough to trigger the Sahm rule, which states that a recession is likely to occur when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate increases by at least 50 basis points from its twelve-month low.
  • Fortunately, easing monetary policy over the coming months could support demand for labor, potentially halting the rise in the unemployment rate and stabilizing wage growth.
  • While it is difficult to know if weak employment trends will persist or be mitigated by upcoming Fed rate cuts, it appears that consumer spending may be relatively soft over the coming months due to ongoing labor market uncertainty. This underscores the importance of investing in companies that are less dependent on discretionary spending (e.g., healthcare stocks) or those that are gaining market share within the economy (e.g., digitally-oriented restaurants growing their unit bases).
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The views expressed are the views of Fred Alger Management, LLC (“FAM”) and its affiliates as of September 2024. These views are subject to change at any time and may not represent the views of all portfolio management teams. These views should not be interpreted as a guarantee of the future performance of the markets, any security or any funds managed by FAM. These views are not meant to provide investment advice and should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell securities.

Risk Disclosures: Investing in the stock market involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Growth stocks may be more volatile than other stocks as their prices tend to be higher in relation to their companies’ earnings and may be more sensitive to market, political, and economic developments. Local, regional or global events such as environmental or natural disasters, war, terrorism, pandemics, outbreaks of infectious diseases and similar public health threats, recessions, or other events could have a significant impact on investments. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investors whose reference currency differs from that in which the underlying assets are invested may be subject to exchange rate movements that alter the value of their investments.

Important Information for US Investors: This material must be accompanied by the most recent fund fact sheet(s) if used in connection with the sale of mutual fund and ETF shares. Fred Alger & Company, LLC serves as distributor of the Alger mutual funds.

Important Information for UK and EU Investors: This material is directed at investment professionals and qualified investors (as defined by MiFID/FCA regulations). It is for information purposes only and has been prepared and is made available for the benefit investors. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which it is not authorized or permitted, or to anyone who would be an unlawful recipient, and is only intended for use by original recipients and addressees. The original recipient is solely responsible for any actions in further distributing this material and should be satisfied in doing so that there is no breach of local legislation or regulation.
Certain products may be subject to restrictions with regard to certain persons or in certain countries under national regulations applicable to such persons or countries.

Alger Management, Ltd. (85 Gresham Street, Suite 308, London EC2V 7NQ, UK) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, for the distribution of regulated financial products and services. FAM, Weatherbie Capital, LLC, and/or Redwood Investments, LLC, U.S. registered investment advisors, serve as sub-portfolio manager to financial products distributed by Alger Management, Ltd.

Alger Group Holdings, LLC (parent company of FAM and Alger Management, Ltd.), FAM, and Fred Alger & Company, LLC are not authorized persons for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom (“FSMA”) and this material has not been approved by an authorized person for the purposes of Section 21(2)(b) of the FSMA.

Important information for Investors in Israel: Fred Alger Management, LLC is neither licensed nor insured under the Israeli Regulation of Investment Advice, of Investment Marketing, and of Portfolio Management Law, 1995 (the "Investment Advice Law"). This document is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offering of Investment Advisory, Investment Marketing or Portfolio Management services (As defined in the Investment Advice Law). Services regulated under the Investment Advice Law are only available to investors that fall within the First Schedule of Investment Advice Law ("Qualified Clients"). It is hereby noted that with respect to Qualified Clients, Fred Alger Management, LLC is not obliged to comply with the following requirements of the Investment Advice Law: (1) ensuring the compatibility of service to the needs of client; (2) engaging in a written agreement with the client, the content of which is as described in section 13 of the Investment Advice Law; (3) providing the client with appropriate disclosure regarding all matters that are material to a proposed transaction or to the advice given; (4) a prohibition on preferring certain Securities or other Financial Assets; (5) providing disclosure about "extraordinary risks" entailed in a transaction (and obtaining the client's approval of such transactions, if applicable); (6) a prohibition on making Portfolio Management fees conditional upon profits or number of transactions; (7) maintaining records of advisory/discretionary actions. This document is directed at and intended for Qualified Clients only.

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association that provides economic data, analysis, and insights.

Alger pays compensation to third party marketers to sell various strategies to prospective investors.

Fre​d Alger & Company, LLC​ 100 Pearl Street, New York, NY 10004 / www.alger.com​ / ​212-806-8800​
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ETF Investors

This ETF is different from traditional ETFs.

Traditional ETFs tell the public what assets they hold each day. This ETF will not. This may create additional risks for your investment. Specifically:

You may have to pay more money to trade the ETF’s shares. This ETF will provide less information to traders, who tend to charge more for trades when they have less information.

The price you pay to buy ETF shares on an exchange may not match the value of the ETF’s portfolio. The same is true when you sell shares. These price differences may be greater for this ETF compared to other ETFs because it provides less information to traders.

These additional risks may be even greater in bad or uncertain market conditions.

The differences between this ETF and other ETFs may also have advantages. By keeping certain information about the ETF confidential, this ETF may face less risk that other traders can predict or copy its investment strategy. This may improve the ETF’s performance. If other traders are able to copy or predict the ETF’s investment strategy, however, this may hurt the ETF’s performance. For additional information regarding the unique attributes and risks of this ETF, please refer to the prospectus.

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