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Avoiding Poor Decisions

Acting on short-term investment performance can lead to poorly timed decisions driven by emotion. How might investors improve their decision making and avoid the pitfalls of market timing?

Acting on short-term investment performance can lead to poorly timed decisions driven by emotion. How might investors improve their decision making and avoid the pitfalls of market timing?

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​​​​​​Chart showing Annual Returns for 10 Years Ending 2023 for Active U.S. Equity Mutual Funds and ETFs​​​​​​​
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  • Based on data from Morningstar, investors have underperformed active U.S. equity funds by more than 120 basis points annually over the past decade, primarily due to poor timing decisions. Morningstar further notes, “The average investor return lagged the average total return in all 10 of the calendar year returns that made up the decade we examined, underscoring the persistence of timing costs.” Additionally, they found that investors incurred significant timing costs during periods of heightened volatility, such as in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic.
  • Market drawdowns often provoke strong emotions, prompting investors to deviate from their long-term asset allocation goals. How might investors overcome instinctive pitfalls and navigate the market better? One answer is to use the “outside view.” In behavioral finance, the “inside view” is derived when an individual forms a view based on specific details of a current situation, often relying heavily on personal experience and immediate information. The “outside view” is when an individual relies on data from comparable situations and utilizes evidence from others’ experiences to form a view (see Looking Outside for Better Decisions​).
  • ​For example, while the inside view may narrowly focus on how a recent surge in economic uncertainty could negatively impact corporate earnings in the short term, the outside view considers historical equity performance following periods of extreme market volatility. In many cases, such volatility has historically been followed by strong equity market performance over the following year, suggesting potential opportunities for disciplined investors who maintain their focus during periods of uncertainty (see also The Upside of Fear).

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The views expressed are the views of Fred Alger Management, LLC (“FAM”) and its affiliates as of April 2025. These views are subject to change at any time and may not represent the views of all portfolio management teams. These views should not be interpreted as a guarantee of the future performance of the markets, any security or any funds managed by FAM. These views are not meant to provide investment advice and should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell securities.

Risk Disclosures: Investing in the stock market involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Growth stocks may be more volatile than other stocks as their prices tend to be higher in relation to their companies’ earnings and may be more sensitive to market, political, and economic developments. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investors whose reference currency differs from that in which the underlying assets are invested may be subject to exchange rate movements that alter the value of their investments.

Important Information for US Investors: This material must be accompanied by the most recent fund fact sheet(s) if used in connection with the sale of mutual fund and ETF shares. Fred Alger & Company, LLC serves as distributor of the Alger mutual funds.

​Important Information for UK and EU Investors: This material is directed at investment professionals and qualified investors (as defined by MiFID/FCA regulations). It is for information purposes only and has been prepared and is made available for the benefit investors. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which it is not authorized or permitted, or to anyone who would be an unlawful recipient, and is only intended for use by original recipients and addressees. The original recipient is solely responsible for any actions in further distributing this material and should be satisfied in doing so that there is no breach of local legislation or regulation.

Certain products may be subject to restrictions with regard to certain persons or in certain countries under national regulations applicable to such persons or countries.

Alger Management, Ltd. (85 Gresham Street, Suite 308, London EC2V 7NQ, UK) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, for the distribution of regulated financial products and services. FAM, Weatherbie Capital, LLC, and/or Redwood Investments, LLC, U.S. registered investment advisors, serve as sub-portfolio manager to financial products distributed by Alger Management, Ltd.

Alger Group Holdings, LLC (parent company of FAM and Alger Management, Ltd.), FAM, and Fred Alger & Company, LLC are not authorized persons for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom (“FSMA”) and this material has not been approved by an authorized person for the purposes of Section 21(2)(b) of the FSMA.

Important information for Investors in Israel: Fred Alger Management, LLC is neither licensed nor insured under the Israeli Regulation of Investment Advice, of Investment Marketing, and of Portfolio Management Law, 1995 (the "Investment Advice Law"). This presentation is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offering of Investment Advisory, Investment Marketing or Portfolio Management services (As defined in the Investment Advice Law). Services regulated under the Investment Advice Law are only available to investors that fall within the First Schedule of Investment Advice Law ("Qualified Clients"). It is hereby noted that with respect to Qualified Clients, Fred Alger Management, LLC is not obliged to comply with the following requirements of the Investment Advice Law: (1) ensuring the compatibility of service to the needs of client; (2) engaging in a written agreement with the client, the content of which is as described in section 13 of the Investment Advice Law; (3) providing the client with appropriate disclosure regarding all matters that are material to a proposed transaction or to the advice given; (4) a prohibition on preferring certain Securities or other Financial Assets; (5) providing disclosure about "extraordinary risks" entailed in a transaction (and obtaining the client's approval of such transactions, if applicable); (6) a prohibition on making Portfolio Management fees conditional upon profits or number of transactions; (7) maintaining records of advisory/discretionary actions. This presentation is directed at and intended for Qualified Clients only.

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete, or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Alger pays compensation to third party marketers to sell various strategies to prospective investors.

Fred Alger & Company, LLC​ 100 Pearl Street, New York, NY 10004 / www.alger.com / 212-806-8800

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ETF Investors

This ETF is different from traditional ETFs.

Traditional ETFs tell the public what assets they hold each day. This ETF will not. This may create additional risks for your investment. Specifically:

You may have to pay more money to trade the ETF’s shares. This ETF will provide less information to traders, who tend to charge more for trades when they have less information.

The price you pay to buy ETF shares on an exchange may not match the value of the ETF’s portfolio. The same is true when you sell shares. These price differences may be greater for this ETF compared to other ETFs because it provides less information to traders.

These additional risks may be even greater in bad or uncertain market conditions.

The differences between this ETF and other ETFs may also have advantages. By keeping certain information about the ETF confidential, this ETF may face less risk that other traders can predict or copy its investment strategy. This may improve the ETF’s performance. If other traders are able to copy or predict the ETF’s investment strategy, however, this may hurt the ETF’s performance. For additional information regarding the unique attributes and risks of this ETF, please refer to the prospectus.

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