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What Can Valuations Tell Us?

Growth stock valuations have declined considerably over the past two years, particularly within smaller cap growth stocks. How do these valuations compare to history and what might they imply going forward?

Shorthand valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), do not tell investors much about the prospective returns of individual companies, in our opinion. However, these kinds of valuation multiples may provide important information about broad-based index sentiment. So, what are they telling us now?​

​​​​Chart showing valuations and historical returns​​
​​​
  • The chart depicted above illustrates the historical relationship between P/E ratios and the subsequent 10-year annualized returns for various indexes. As of October 2023, the S&P 500’s P/E ratio is 17.3x, as shown on the green line in the chart above, potentially implying annualized returns in the mid-single digits over the next decade. However, a handful of mega-cap stocks with strong consensus estimated earnings growth rates above 20%, in aggregate, skew the S&P 500 P/E higher. Excluding these stocks, the S&P 500 P/E is about two points lower, potentially implying a higher corresponding return over the next decade, given the historical relationship.
  • Smaller-cap stocks, however, may look even more attractive for long-term investors. Particularly, small and mid-cap growth stocks, whose valuations have compressed due to rising interest rates, are trading at P/E multiples which have historically produced double-digit annual returns over the following decade.
  • While past performance is not indicative of future returns, investors may find it reasonable to allocate into areas of the equity market that are statistically attractive relative to history.
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​​​The views expressed are the views of Fred Alger Management, LLC (“FAM”) and its affiliates as of November 2023. These views are subject to change at any time and may not represent the views of all portfolio management teams. These views should not be interpreted as a guarantee of the future performance of the markets, any security or any funds managed by FAM. These views are not meant to provide investment advice and should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell securities.

​​ Risk Disclosures:​ Investing in the stock market involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Growth stocks may be more volatile than other stocks as their prices tend to be higher in relation to their companies’ earnings and may be more sensitive to market, political, and economic developments. Local, regional or global events such as environmental or natural disasters, war, terrorism, pandemics, outbreaks of infectious diseases and similar public health threats, recessions, or other events could have a significant impact on investments. Foreign securities and Emerging Markets involve special risks including currency fluctuations, inefficient trading, political and economic instability, and increased volatility. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.​Investors whose reference currency differs from that in which the underlying assets are invested may be subject to exchange rate movements that alter the value of their investments.
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​​Important Information for US Investors: This material must be accompanied by the most recent fund fact sheet(s) if used in connection with the sale of mutual fund and ETF shares. Fred Alger & Company, LLC serves as distributor of the Alger mutual funds. ​

Important Information for UK and EU Investors: This material is directed at investment professionals and qualified investors (as defined by MiFID/FCA regulations). It is for information purposes only and has been prepared and is made available for the benefit in​vestors. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which it is not authorised or permitted, or to anyone who would be an unlawful recipient, and is only intended for use by original recipients and addressees. The original recipient is solely responsible for any actions in further distributing this material and should be satisfied in doing so that there is no breach of local legislation or regulation. ​

​Certain products may be subject to restrictions with regard to certain persons or in certain countries under national regulations applicable to such persons or countries.

​Alger Management, Ltd. (company house number 8634056, domiciled at 78 Brook Street, London W1K 5EF, UK) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, for the distribution of regulated financial products and services. FAM and/or Weatherbie Capital, LLC, U.S. registered investment advisors, serve as sub-portfolio manager to financial products distributed by Alger Management, Ltd.

Alger Group Holdings, LLC (parent company of FAM and Alger Management, Ltd.), FAM, and Fred Alger & Company, LLC are not authorized persons for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom (“FSMA”) and this material has not been approved by an authorized person for the purposes of Section 21(2)(b) of the FSMA.
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Important Information​ for Investors in Israel: This material is provided in Israel only to investors of the type listed in the first schedule of the Securities Law, 1968 (the “Securities Law”) and the Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing and Investment Portfolio Management Law, 1995. The Fund units will not be sold to investors who are not of the type listed in the first schedule of the Securities Law.
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The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of the U.S. stock market. S&P MidCap 400 Growth Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of mid cap growth stocks. S&P SmallCap 600 Growth Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of small-cap growth stocks. The indices presented are provided for illustrative purposes, reflect the reinvestment of dividends and do not assess fees and expenses that would have the effect of reducing returns. Investors cannot invest directly in any index. The index performance does not represent the returns of any portfolio advised by Fred Alger Management, LLC and actual client results might differ materially than the indices shown. Note that past performance is no guarantee of future results. The S&P indexes are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Fred Alger Management, LLC and its affiliates. Copyright 2023 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a subsidiary of S&P Global Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. S&P® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.

FactSet is an independent source, which Alger believes to be a reliable source. FAM, however, makes no representation that it is complete or accurate.

Alger pays compensation to third party marketers to sell various strategies to prospective investors.

The following positions represent firm wide assets under management as of August 31, 2023: Apple, Inc. 4.50%; Microsoft Corporation 7.32%; NVIDIA Corporation 3.22%; Amazon.com, Inc., 3.28%; Alphabet Inc. 1.84%; Meta Platforms Inc. 3.10%; and Tesla Inc 1.42%.​

Fre​d Alger & Company, LLC 100 Pearl Street, New York, NY 10004 / www.alger.com​​ ​/ 212.806.8800


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ETF Investors

This ETF is different from traditional ETFs.

Traditional ETFs tell the public what assets they hold each day. This ETF will not. This may create additional risks for your investment. Specifically:

You may have to pay more money to trade the ETF’s shares. This ETF will provide less information to traders, who tend to charge more for trades when they have less information.

The price you pay to buy ETF shares on an exchange may not match the value of the ETF’s portfolio. The same is true when you sell shares. These price differences may be greater for this ETF compared to other ETFs because it provides less information to traders.

These additional risks may be even greater in bad or uncertain market conditions.

The differences between this ETF and other ETFs may also have advantages. By keeping certain information about the ETF confidential, this ETF may face less risk that other traders can predict or copy its investment strategy. This may improve the ETF’s performance. If other traders are able to copy or predict the ETF’s investment strategy, however, this may hurt the ETF’s performance. For additional information regarding the unique attributes and risks of this ETF, please refer to the prospectus.

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