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Piggy Bank Running Low?

During the pandemic, significant fiscal stimulus and lockdown measures boosted savings for many Americans. Now that fiscal support has ended and normal spending has resumed, when could these savings be depleted, and how might that impact the economy?

During the pandemic, many Americans increased their savings as a result of massive fiscal stimulus, combined with store closures, quarantines, and social distancing. Now that the extraordinary government assistance is behind us and people have resumed spending on travel, dining, and entertainment, are those savings drying up? If so, what could this mean for investors and the overall economy?​
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​​​​Chart showing U.S. Household Excess Savings depleting ($ trillions)​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
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  • The total U.S. fiscal stimulus between 2020 and 2021 was approximately $5 trillion, including direct payments to families, expanded unemployment benefits, and loans and grants to businesses. With many areas of the economy closed to consumers, household personal savings grew approximately $2.1 trillion more than the pre-pandemic trend – referred to as “excess savings,” according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • This pool of excess savings has likely been propping up consumer spending, which outpaced household income growth in 2021 and 2022. However, higher spending growth relative to income has drained excess savings by $1.6 trillion since its peak, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Accordingly, the remaining $500 billion in excess savings may be exhausted by the end of this year, in our view.
  • ​​We believe the net result is that consumer spending is likely to moderate over the next 12 months. This dynamic could become a headwind for companies reliant on economic growth to drive their business forward, such as specialty retail and home improvement companies, in our view. However, we believe market-share gaining companies less exposed to cyclical end-markets, such as health care – where spending on drugs or genetic testing is less discretionary - may fare better.

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The views expressed are the views of Fred Alger Management, LLC (“FAM”) and its affiliates as of May 2023. These views are subject to change at any time and may not represent the views of all portfolio management teams. These views should not be interpreted as a guarantee of the future performance of the markets, any security or any funds managed by FAM. These views are not meant to provide investment advice and should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell securities.

Risk Disclosures: Investing in the stock market involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Growth stocks may be more volatile than other stocks as their prices tend to be higher in relation to their companies’ earnings and may be more sensitive to market, political, and economic developments. Local, regional or global events such as environmental or natural disasters, war, terrorism, pandemics, outbreaks of infectious diseases and similar public health threats, recessions, or other events could have a significant impact on investments. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investors whose reference currency differs from that in which the underlying assets are invested may be subject to exchange rate movements that alter the value of their investments. Investing in innovation is not without risk and there is no guarantee that investments in research and development will result in a company gaining market share or achieving enhanced revenue. Companies exploring new technologies may face regulatory, political or legal challenges that may adversely impact their competitive positioning and financial prospects. Also, developing technologies to displace older technologies or create new markets may not in fact do so, and there may be sector-specific risks as well. As is the case with any industry, there will be winners and losers that emerge and investors therefore need to conduct a significant amount of due diligence on individual companies to assess these risks and opportunities.

Important Information for US Investors: This material must be accompanied by the most recent fund fact sheet(s) if used in connection with the sale of mutual fund and ETF shares. Fred Alger & Company, LLC serves as distributor of the Alger mutual funds.

Important Information for UK and EU Investors: This material is directed at investment professionals and qualified investors (as defined by MiFID/FCA regulations). It is for information purposes only and has been prepared and is made available for the benefit investors. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which it is not authorized or permitted, or to anyone who would be an unlawful recipient, and is only intended for use by original recipients and addressees. The original recipient is solely responsible for any actions in further distributing this material and should be satisfied in doing so that there is no breach of local legislation or regulation.

Certain products may be subject to restrictions with regard to certain persons or in certain countries under national regulations applicable to such persons or countries.

Alger Management, Ltd. (company house number 8634056, domiciled at 78 Brook Street, London W1K 5EF, UK) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Au¬thority, for the distribution of regulated financial products and services. FAM and/or Weatherbie Capital, LLC, U.S. registered investment advisors, serve as sub-portfolio manager to financial products distributed by Alger Management, Ltd.

Alger Group Holdings, LLC (parent company of FAM and Alger Management, Ltd.), FAM, and Fred Alger & Company, LLC are not authorized persons for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom (“FSMA”) and this material has not been approved by an authorized person for the purposes of Section 21(2)(b) of the FSMA.

Important information for Investors in Israel: This material is provided in Israel only to investors of the type listed in the first schedule of the Securities Law, 1968 (the “Securities Law”) and the Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing and Investment Portfolio Management Law, 1995. The Fund units will not be sold to investors who are not of the type listed in the first schedule of the Securities Law. ​

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a U.S. government agency that provides statistical information about the nation's economy, including data on economic growth, regional development, and international trade and investment.

Chart projections should be considered speculation and not definitive predictions, as future economic conditions are inherently uncertain.

Alger pays compensation to third party marketers to sell various strategies to prospective investors.

Fre​d Alger & Company, LLC 100 Pearl Street, New York, NY 10004 / www.alger.com​​ ​/ 800.305.8547 (Retail) / 800.223.3810 (Institutional)​

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ETF Investors

This ETF is different from traditional ETFs.

Traditional ETFs tell the public what assets they hold each day. This ETF will not. This may create additional risks for your investment. Specifically:

You may have to pay more money to trade the ETF’s shares. This ETF will provide less information to traders, who tend to charge more for trades when they have less information.

The price you pay to buy ETF shares on an exchange may not match the value of the ETF’s portfolio. The same is true when you sell shares. These price differences may be greater for this ETF compared to other ETFs because it provides less information to traders.

These additional risks may be even greater in bad or uncertain market conditions.

The differences between this ETF and other ETFs may also have advantages. By keeping certain information about the ETF confidential, this ETF may face less risk that other traders can predict or copy its investment strategy. This may improve the ETF’s performance. If other traders are able to copy or predict the ETF’s investment strategy, however, this may hurt the ETF’s performance. For additional information regarding the unique attributes and risks of this ETF, please refer to the prospectus.

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