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Beyond Moore's Law​​

ChatGPT is giving us a glimpse of how AI could revolutionize the way we live and work in the future. How does AI compare to other technological feats and how might this impact the global economy going forward?

The topic of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been exploding in popularity since the November 2022 release of ChatGPT. This chatbot prototype, developed by OpenAI, is giving us a glimpse of how AI could revolutionize the way we live and work in the future. How does AI compare to other technological feats and how might this impact the global economy going forward? ​​​​
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​​​​Chart showing doubling time in months for Artificial Intelligence and Moore's Law/Transistors​​​​​​​​​
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  • Moore’s Law states that the speed and ability of computers doubles every two years as the number of transistors on a microchip increases. When Gordon Moore wrote his revolutionary paper in 1965, there were only 64 transistors on an integrated circuit. Nearly six decades later, Apple’s M2 chip has approximately twenty billion transistors1, generating productivity that we could not fathom in the early days of integrated circuits.
  • While the pace of Moore’s Law is impressive, this pales in comparison to the speed at which AI programs can “train” themselves (i.e., how much computation they can utilize) by doubling every four months, as indicated in the chart above. Over a ten-year period, this implies that AI training may grow ​by more than 100,000,000x faster than Moore’s Law.
  • ​In our view, the speed of AI innovation should continue to accelerate, with the potential to significantly change how we utilize software and improve our lives. We believe companies that are at the forefront of AI innovation, such as the major cloud platforms or leaders in the hardware that drives the cloud technology forward, may benefit as we enter the next frontier of technological advancement.

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​​​The views expressed are the views of Fred Alger Management, LLC (“FAM”) and its affiliates as of February ​2023​​. These views are subject to change at any time and may not represent the views of all portfolio management teams. These views should not be interpreted as a guarantee of the future performance of the markets, any security or any funds managed by FAM. These views are not meant to provide investment advice and should not be considered a ​recommendation to purchase or sell securities. ​​Alger pays compensation to third party marketers to sell various strategies to prospective investors. ​

​​ Risk Disclosures: Investing in the stock market involves certain risks, including the potential loss of principal.​ Growth stocks may be more volatile than other stocks as their prices tend to be higher in relation to their companies’ earnings and may be more sensitive to market, political, and economic developments. Local, regional or global events such as war, acts of terrorism, the spread of infectious illness such as COVID-19 or other public health issues, recessions, or other events could have a significant impact on investments. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.​ Investors whose reference currency differs from that in which the underlying assets are invested may be subject to exchange rate movements that alter the value of their investments.

This information is general in nature and should not be construed as legal or tax advice. Alger makes no warranties with regard to such information or the results obtained by its use. Alger disclaims any liability arising out of your use of, or any tax position, taken in reliance on such information. Always consult an attorney or qualified tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation.
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​​Important Information for US Investors: This material must be accompanied by the most recent fund fact sheet(s) if used in connection with the sale of mutual fund and ETF shares. Fred Alger & Company, LLC serves as distributor of the Alger mutual funds.

​​​ Important Information for UK and EU Investors: This material is directed at investment professionals and qualified investors (as defined by MiFID/FCA regulations). It is for information purposes only and has been prepared and is made available for the benefit in​vestors. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which it is not authorised or permitted, or to anyone who would be an unlawful recipient, and is only intended for use by original recipients and addressees. The original recipient is solely responsible for any actions in further distributing this material and should be satisfied in doing so that there is no breach of local legislation or regulation. ​
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​Alger Management, Ltd. (company house number 8634056, domiciled at 78 Brook Street, London W1K 5EF, UK) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, for the distribution of regulated financial products and services. FAM and/or Weatherbie Capital, LLC, U.S. registered investment advisors, serve as sub-portfolio manager to financial products distributed by Alger Management, Ltd.

Alger Group Holdings, LLC (parent company of FAM and Alger Management, Ltd.), FAM, and Fred Alger & Company, LLC are not authorized persons for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom (“FSMA”) and this material has not been approved by an authorized person for the purposes of Section 21(2)(b) of the FSMA.
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Important Information​ for Investors in Israel: This material is provided in Israel only to investors of the type listed in the first schedule of the Securities Law, 1968 (the “Securities Law”) and the Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing and Investment Portfolio Management Law, 1995. The Fund units will not be sold to investors who are not of the type listed in the first schedule of the Securities Law.
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Investing in innovation is not without risk and there is no guarantee that investments in research and development will result in a company gaining market share or achieving enhanced revenue.

​OpenAI is an artificial intelligence research laboratory consisting of the for-profit corporation OpenAI LP and its parent company, the non-profit OpenAI Inc. The company conducts research in the field of AI with the stated goal of promoting and developing friendly AI in a way that benefits humanity as a whole.

The following positions represent firm wide assets under management as of November 30, 2022: Apple, Inc. 3.00%; Intel Corporation 0.00%; OpenAI 0.00%.

The chart calculation of AI’s growth rates compares the training computation between Dropout (2012) and GPT-3 (2020), based on PetaFLOPS /day per second. PetaFLOPS is a unit of computing speed, equal to one quadrillion FLOPS (floating operations per second) and serves as a measure of computer performance. Dropout is a regularization technique for reducing overfitting in deep neural networks and was proposed by Hinton et al. in their paper “Dropout: A Simple Way to Prevent Neural Networks from Overfitting” in 2012. Generative Pre-trained Transformer 3 (GPT-3) is an autoregressive language model released in 2020 that uses deep learning to produce human-like text, developed by OpenAI. This calculation should be considered a rough estimate.

1​ Apple company data (June 6, 2022, press release).

Fre​d Alger & Company, LLC 100 Pearl Street, New York, NY 10004 / www.alger.com​​
​ 800.305.8547 (Retail) / 800.223.3810 (Institutional)​


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