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What's onYour Mind?
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Video: What’s on Your Mind? Final Rate Hike, Biotech, GLP-1, and Tailwinds​​​

Kevin D. Collin's Photo

Kevin D. Collins, CFA;

Senior Vice President
Client Portfolio Manager

In this episode, Client Portfolio Manager Kevin Collins addresses the final rate hike, biotech having a moment, the impact of GLP-1 drugs and exciting tailwinds for 2024.​

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​In this episode, Client Portfolio Manager Kevin Collins addresses the final rate hike, biotech having a moment, the impact of GLP-1 drugs, and exciting tailwinds for 2024.​


KEVIN COLLINS: Hi. I’m Kevin Collins, client portfolio manager at Alger, and in this episode of What’s on Your Mind, we address some of the most pressing issues that our clients have expressed to us regarding the capital markets and growth stock investing.​​

The first question we’ll address today is, how do stocks perform after the final rate hike in a Fed tightening cycle?

We believe quite positively. We look back at the last five rate hike cycles that dates back 35 years, in the 12 months subsequent to the final rate hike, stocks performed very well. On average, they were up nineteen percent, and they had positive returns in four of those five instances.

Based on this research, we believe that growth stocks could be a big beneficiary if the Fed’s rate hike in July was the last of this tightening cycle. Our belief is predicated on the long-duration earnings growth profile of growth companies.

Additionally, over the last 18 months, there have been two periods where growth stocks reacted very favorably to the prospect of a Fed pause or a pivot. The first instance was in the early summer of 2022 when investors thought Fed Chair Powell might pause or pivot. And in the months leading up to that conference, growth stocks outperformed.

The second instance was in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank Corp failure and the regional banking crisis. Interest rates fell, and growth stocks outperformed because we believe investors were very fearful that the credit impulse would be killed, and that there would be less lending and less economic growth as a consequence of that lending.

The second question is, is biotechnology having a “moment”?

Well, biotech might be poised for a moment, particularly in the small cap space. These companies are driven by idiosyncratic, meaning company-specific, catalysts. And therefore, with a pause in rates, we believe that biotech valuations might be reaching an inflection point.

Therefore, if investors can locate companies that have the prospect for good clinical success in their drug development, these stocks might present a good investment opportunity.

The third question is, how have the recent crossover diabetes and obesity drugs impacted the healthcare industry?

We believe quite dramatically and, GLP-1 drugs were originally invented to address diabetes, but they've also had very positive consequences in obesity. Clinical trials are now indicating that these diabetes slash obesity drugs may have very positive consequences and improve cardiovascular outcomes for people afflicted with these diseases.

So, it's probably not a surprise to you that companies like Lilly and Novo Nordisk - their stock prices have done extremely well in 2023.

However, we believe GLP-1 drugs have had negative consequences for other healthcare stocks. Recently, cardiovascular related stocks, we're talking structural heart, med tech companies, they've had their share prices decline quite substantially, and the stocks that are down are likely to have GLP-1 as an overhang in the near term.

We believe that there's one giant positive takeaway, and that is GLP-1 drugs are going to have very positive consequences for our society.

The fourth question is, are there any other tailwinds for the remainder of the year and into 2024 that we're excited about?

Well, we've talked a lot about healthcare investing and particularly small caps. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention generative artificial intelligence. We believe that artificial intelligence is catalyzing the growth in the economy around tech spending. Whereas nine months ago people were concerned about the levels of investment in technology, in the near term given a slowing economy, generative AI has encouraged new tech spending. We believe that some of the biggest beneficiaries of this tech spending are utility scale cloud providers. Data centers are going to require, we believe, a big increase in their computing power and, in our view, semiconductor demand will be driven strongly by the demand for hyperscale processing chips. A company in that area that's got a good market lead in our view is Nvidia.

We believe that the most successful adopters of artificial intelligence will have, one - large proprietary data sets; two – excellent tech talent; and three - the ability to i​nvest considerable sums in generative AI infrastructure. 

We believe companies with the best data, the best human tech talent and the capability to invest substantial capital expenses to develop the tech infrastructure will be the winners.​


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The views expressed are the views of Fred Alger Management, LLC (“FAM”) and its affiliates as of November 2023. These views are subject to change at any time and may not represent the views of all portfolio management teams. These views should not be interpreted as a guarantee of the future performance of the markets, any security or any funds managed by FAM. These views are not meant to provide investment advice and should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell securities.

Risk Disclosures: Investing in the stock market involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Growth stocks may be more volatile than other stocks as their prices tend to be higher in relation to their companies’ earnings and may be more sensitive to market, political, and economic developments. Local, regional or global events such as environmental or natural disasters, war, terrorism, pandemics, outbreaks of infectious diseases and similar public health threats, recessions, or other events could have a significant impact on investments. Investing in companies of small capitalizations involves the risk that such issuers may have limited product lines or financial resources, lack management depth, or have limited liquidity. Foreign securities and Emerging Markets involve special risks including currency fluctuations, inefficient trading, political and economic instability, and increased volatility. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investors whose reference currency differs from that in which the underlying assets are invested may be subject to exchange rate movements that alter the value of their investments. 

Investing in innovation is not without risk and there is no guarantee that investments in research and development will result in a company gaining market share or achieving enhanced revenue. Companies exploring new technologies may face regulatory, political or legal challenges that may adversely impact their competitive positioning and financial prospects. Also, developing technologies to displace older technologies or create new markets may not in fact do so, and there may be sector-specific risks as well. As is the case with any industry, there will be winners and losers that emerge and investors therefore need to conduct a significant amount of due diligence on individual companies to assess these risks and opportunities.

Important Information for US Investors: This material must be accompanied by the most recent fund fact sheet(s) if used in connection with the sale of mutual fund and ETF shares. Fred Alger & Company, LLC serves as distributor of the Alger mutual funds.

Important Information for UK and EU Investors: This material is directed at investment professionals and qualified investors (as defined by MiFID/FCA regulations). It is for information purposes only and has been prepared and is made available for the benefit investors. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which it is not authorised or permitted, or to anyone who would be an unlawful recipient, and is only intended for use by original recipients and addressees. The original recipient is solely responsible for any actions in further distributing this material and should be satisfied in doing so that there is no breach of local legislation or regulation.

Certain products may be subject to restrictions with regard to certain persons or in certain countries under national regulations applicable to such persons or countries.

Alger Management, Ltd. (85 Gresham Street, Suite 308, London EC2V 7NQ, UK) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, for the distribution of regulated financial products and services. FAM and/or Weatherbie Capital, LLC, U.S. registered investment advisors, serve as sub-portfolio manager to financial products distributed by Alger Management, Ltd.

Alger Group Holdings, LLC (parent company of FAM and Alger Management, Ltd.), FAM, and Fred Alger & Company, LLC are not authorized persons for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom (“FSMA”) and this material has not been approved by an authorized person for the purposes of Section 21(2)(b) of the FSMA.

Important information for Investors in Israel: This material is provided in Israel only to investors of the type listed in the first schedule of the Securities Law, 1968 (the "Securities Law") and the Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing and Investment Portfolio Management Law, 1995. The Fund units will not be sold to investors who are not of the type listed in the first schedule of the Securities Law.

The Russell 1000® Growth Index is an unmanaged index designed to measure the performance of the largest 1000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.

The Russell 2000® Growth Index measures the performance of the small-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 2000 companies with higher growth earning potential as defined by Russell's leading style methodology. The Russell 2000 Growth Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased barometer for the small-cap growth segment. Russell 2000® Growth Index performance does not reflect deductions for fees or expenses. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of the U.S. stock market.

Frank Russell Company (“Russell”) is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Russell® is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and / or Russell ratings or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and / or Russell ratings and / or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell’s express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. The S&P indexes are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Fred Alger Management, LLC and its affiliates. Copyright 2023 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a subsidiary of S&P Global Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. S&P® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.

Investors cannot invest directly in any index. Index performance does not reflect deductions for taxes. The performance data quoted represents past performance, which is not an indication or a guarantee of future results.

​ The following stocks represent Alger’s firmwide assets under management as of August 31, 2023: Novo-Nordisk, 0.04%; Eli Lilly & Co., 0.63%; NVIDIA Corp., 5.40%; Silicon Valley Bank, Inc., 0.0%. Alger pays compensation to third party marketers to sell various strategies to prospective investors. Fred Alger & Company, LLC 100 Pearl Street, New York, NY 10004 / 800.223.3810 / www.alger.com

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This ETF is different from traditional ETFs.

Traditional ETFs tell the public what assets they hold each day. This ETF will not. This may create additional risks for your investment. Specifically:

You may have to pay more money to trade the ETF’s shares. This ETF will provide less information to traders, who tend to charge more for trades when they have less information.

The price you pay to buy ETF shares on an exchange may not match the value of the ETF’s portfolio. The same is true when you sell shares. These price differences may be greater for this ETF compared to other ETFs because it provides less information to traders.

These additional risks may be even greater in bad or uncertain market conditions.

The differences between this ETF and other ETFs may also have advantages. By keeping certain information about the ETF confidential, this ETF may face less risk that other traders can predict or copy its investment strategy. This may improve the ETF’s performance. If other traders are able to copy or predict the ETF’s investment strategy, however, this may hurt the ETF’s performance. For additional information regarding the unique attributes and risks of this ETF, please refer to the prospectus.

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