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CommentaryMarket Concentration
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Are You Concentrating Too Much?

Brad Neuman's Photo

Brad Neuman, CFA;

Senior Vice President
Director of Market Strategy

Equity market capitalization is more concentrated now than it has been in over half a century. In this paper, we delve into the evolution of current market concentration, the drivers of this dynamic, and its impact on company valuations and portfolios.

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Equity market capitalization is more concentrated now than it has been in over half a century, creating important implications for investors. In this short paper, we delve into the evolution of current market concentration and drivers of this dynamic, as well as its impact on company valuations and portfolio management. We also explore what we believe are important drivers that may propel new and growing companies to become the next market leaders.​​​



A Historical Perspective​

Concentration within major equity market indices is at a 50 year high. The top five companies in the S&P 500 comprise approximately one-quarter of the index (see Figure 1). This is much higher than the 14% average since 1990. Within the Russell 1000 Growth Index, the market concentration is even more stark – the top five largest companies comprise over 40% of the index, nearly double the 21% average since 1990 (see Figure 2).
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The last time the stock market was this concentrated was in the early 1970s. This was the era of the Nifty Fifty, which was a time period when investors assigned very high multiples to many of the largest companies in the U.S. equity market. These stocks traded at an average price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) that was more than double that of the S&P 500. However, with the benefit of hindsight, we know that these stocks with lofty multiples were actually undervalued relative to the stock market in 1970 and only 5-10% overvalued at their peak in 1972, according to Jeremy Siegel’s analysis.1 How can stocks with premium multiples be undervalued? Their earnings growth must be faster than the market, which is what Siegel observed. In the next nearly quarter century, the Nifty Fifty grew their earnings approximately double that of the S&P 500.

Do the largest stocks of today have the potential to produce strong future fundamentals, much like the Nifty Fifty did, and thereby justify their premium valuation?

Charts showing market concentration is at multi-decade highs

Today's Big Businesses Are Strong Businesses​

A significant driver of the largest companies in America becoming such a large share of the U.S. stock market is their fundamental success. In the past decade, the top five weighted stocks in the S&P 500 have grown their share of earnings more than 30%—from under 12% to over 15%. But that is only part of the story. These large companies today have much better business economics than their cousins of decades past. Take AT&T, for example, which was a top five S&P 500 weighting in each decade from 1930 to 1990. While it was a dominant business, AT&T reported only about 3-5% return on assets. In fact, all of the top five S&P 500 constituents in 1990 had return on assets of 8% or lower. This pales in comparison to Apple, Microsoft, or Google’s return on assets today, which ranges from the teens to the mid-20 percent range. To put it in simpler terms, in 1990 AT&T generated approximately $320,000 in revenue per employee in today’s dollars. By contrast, today Apple generates nearly $2.4 millon in revenue per employee or almost seven times more than AT&T did in 1990, adjusted for inflation.

​Generating stronger return on capital should imply a higher P/E, all else equal. In fact, the Magnificent 7 trade at more than a 70% P/E premium to the rest of the S&P 500, boosting the overall P/E on the index by more than two points.2​ This higher valuation helps increase market capitalization and translates into larger index weightings. Despite the higher P/E multiples, these stocks are still cheaper than the rest of the S&P 500 on a P/E-to-Growth multiple (PEG), which adjusts P/E for forecasted consensus growth estimates (see Figure 3).

​ Chart showing The Magnificent 7’s Valuation is Reasonable When Looking at P/E-to-Growth
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Impact on Portfolio Management

Such intense concentration in market indices has a profound effect on many investors’ portfolios, whether or not they invest directly in these benchmarks. For active managers, the weightings of the largest stocks have made it difficult, if not impossible, to overweight these companies and still comply with the “diversification” rule. Under that rule, mutual funds must keep the proportion of their portfolio’s holdings with weightings of more than 5% to no more than one-quarter of the overall fund.3​ With Apple and Microsoft each more than 12% of the Russell 1000 Growth index, it is easy to see how overweighting the largest constituents would cause a manager to run afoul of the diversification rule. As a result, most large cap active managers are underweight the biggest companies, which hurts relative performance if these mega caps outperform, as they have in recent years.

​​Another issue is that the handful of mega-cap stocks drive returns for the indices. This means that as their weighting grows, whatever influences the returns of these stocks will more greatly impact the returns of the indices. Of course, many of these stocks are in the Information Technology sector. As of the end of November 2023, technology stocks accounted for 28% and 43% of the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 Growth indices, respectively. Therefore, an index like the S&P 500 now acts more like the Information Technology sector than it did a decade ago when the sector was less than 13% of the index and certainly more than 1990 when the sector had just a 6% weighting.

It isn’t just sector concentration that may lead to changes in return characteristics but factor exposure as well. Many of the mega-cap stocks, such as Apple and Microsoft, are more growth oriented and have negative correlations to interest rates. This is in stark contrast to other stocks such as Exxon Mobil or General Motors (two companies that have been in the top 5 of the S&P 500 many times in the past), which have positive correlations to rates. This dynamic may be one of the drivers behind the increasing correlation of the S&P 500 and bonds (see Figure 4).

Chart showing S&P 500 Correlation To Bloomberg US Agg Bond Index Rolling 12 Months

​

An Opportunity for Investors?

While fantastic profitability and strong growth are good reasons that a handful of mega-cap stocks dominate equity indices today, the last 50 years of data shows that it is unlikely that concentration will increase much more.

Furthermore, the era of companies persistently holding a top 5 or 10 position in index weightings over decades, like AT&T was able to do, is probably behind us. That is because while the profitability and return on capital of companies is higher than ever, the period for which they earn those​ high returns, their competitive advantage period, is shrinking. In the late 1970s, companies in the S&P 500 used to have an average tenure of 30-35 years; today it is closer to 20 years and likely to fall in the future.4 We believe this is because the pace of innovation is accelerating. For example, the speed at which companies can scale up and disrupt industries is increasing (see Figure 5). Possibly the biggest driver of future change, artificial intelligence (AI), is growing faster than previous general-purpose technologies such as the computer. Data shows that AI is doubling its training computation, a key driver of intelligence, every four months, which is much faster than the two years that Moore’s Law has accurately forecasted with regard to transistors on computer chips.

Chart showing how many years each of the listed products or platforms it took to reach one billion users

This faster pace of change and shorter competitive advantage periods may make room for new companies to ascend to the top of the index weighting charts. While that does not necessarily assure lower levels of concentration, the next crop of market leaders may not be able to dominate to the same extent that the present ones do.

If change is accelerating, it may make new and upcoming companies that can become the leaders of tomorrow even more attractive. Importantly, these small and mid-cap growth companies are historically inexpensive (see Figure 6). If some of these companies do go on to challenge the old guard of mega-cap companies in the years to come, it could prove to be quite an opportunity for investors.

Examining Your Portfolio's Concentration

With equity market capitalization more concentrated than it has been in more than 50 years, is now the time to examine your portfolio’s concentration? You may not be concentrating too much in the Magnificent 7 or mega-cap technology stocks, but you may want to explore other areas of the market capitalization spectrum.
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Chart showing small and mid cap stocks trading at a historic discount to large cap stocks

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1Jeremy Siegel, “Valuing Growth Stocks: Revisiting the Nifty Fifty,” AAII Journal, October 1998. The analysis defines value with respect to market returns over the period December 1970–August 1998 such that a fairly valued portfolio would show the same return as the S&P 500 over this time period, while an overvalued portfolio would underperform the index, and an undervalued portfolio would outperform the index.
2Based on Alger’s analysis of FactSet data. Note that the Magnificent 7 include Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft and Tesla.
3The calculation is based on cost rather than market value.
4​ S. Patrick Viguerie, Ned Calder, and Brian Hindo, “Innosight 2021 Corporate Longevity Forecast,” May 2021.

The views expressed are the views of Fred Alger Management, LLC (“FAM”) and its affiliates as of December 2023. These views are subject to change at any time and may not represent the views of all portfolio management teams. These views should not be interpreted as a guarantee of the future performance of the markets, any security or any funds managed by FAM. These views are not meant to provide investment advice and should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell securities.

Risk Disclosures: Investing in the stock market involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Growth stocks may be more volatile than other stocks as their prices tend to be higher in relation to their companies’ earnings and may be more sensitive to market, political, and economic developments. Local, regional or global events such as environmental or natural disasters, war, terrorism, pandemics, outbreaks of infectious diseases and similar public health threats, recessions, or other events could have a significant impact on investments. Investing in companies of small and medium capitalizations involves the risk that such issuers may have limited product lines or financi​​al resources, lack management depth, or have limited liquidity. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investors whose reference currency differs from that in which the underlying assets are invested may be subject to exchange rate movements that alter the value of their investments. Investing in innovation is not without risk and there is no guarantee that investments in research and development will result in a company gaining market share or achieving enhanced revenue. Companies exploring new technologies may face regulatory, political or legal challenges that may adversely impact their competitive positioning and financial prospects. Also, developing technologies to displace older technologies or create new markets may not in fact do so, and there may be sectorspecific risks as well. As is the case with any industry, there will be winners and losers that emerge and investors therefore need to conduct a significant amount of due diligence on individual companies to assess these risks and opportunities.

Important Information for US Investors: This material must be accompanied by the most recent fund fact sheet(s) if used in connection with the sale of mutual fund and ETF shares. Fred Alger & Company, LLC serves as distributor of the Alger mutual funds.

Important Information for UK and EU Investors: This material is directed at investment professionals and qualified investors (as defined by MiFID/FCA regulations). It is for information purposes only and has been prepared and is made available for the benefit investors. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which it is not authorised or permitted, or to anyone who would be an unlawful recipient, and is only intended for use by original recipients and addressees. The original recipient is solely responsible for any actions in further distributing this material and should be satisfied in doing so that there is no breach of local legislation or regulation.

Certain products may be subject to restrictions with regard to certain persons or in certain countries under national regulations applicable to such persons or countries.

Alger Management, Ltd. (company house number 8634056, domiciled at 78 Brook Street, London W1K 5EF, UK) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, for the distribution of regulated financial products and services. FAM and/or Weatherbie Capital, LLC, U.S. registered investment advisors, serve as subportfolio manager to financial products distributed by Alger Management, Ltd.

Alger Group Holdings, LLC (parent company of FAM and Alger Management, Ltd.), FAM, and Fred Alger & Company, LLC are not authorized persons for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom (“FSMA”) and this material has not been approved by an authorized person for the purposes of Section 21(2)(b) of the FSMA.

Important information for Investors in Israel: This material is provided in Israel only to investors of the type listed in the first schedule of the Securities Law, 1968 (the “Securities Law”) and the Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing and Investment Portfolio Management Law, 1995. The Fund units will not be sold to investors who are not of the type listed in the first schedule of the Securities Law.
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The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of the U.S. stock market. The Russell 1000® Growth Index is an unmanaged index designed to measure the performance of the largest 1000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 3000 Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the U.S. stock market. S&P SmallCap 600 Growth Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of small cap growth stocks. S&P MidCap 400 Growth Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of mid cap growth stocks. Bloomberg US Agg Index is a broad-based benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market.

The indices presented are provided for illustrative purposes, reflect the reinvestment of dividends and do not assess fees and expenses that would have the effect of reducing returns. Investors cannot invest directly in any index. The index performance does not represent the returns of any portfolio advised by Fred Alger Management, LLC and actual client results might differ materially than the indices shown.

Frank Russell Company (“Russell”) is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Russell® is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and / or Russell ratings and/or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell’s express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication.

The S&P indexes are a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Fred Alger Management, LLC and its affiliates. Copyright 2023 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a subsidiary of S&P Global Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. S&P® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.

FactSet is an independent source, which Alger believes to be a reliable source. FAM, however, makes no representation that it is complete or accurate. Alger pays compensation to third party marketers to sell various strategies to prospective investors.

The following stocks represent Alger’s firmwide assets under management as of October 31, 2023: Apple Inc., 4.85%; Alphabet Inc., 3.22%; Amazon.com Inc., 4.96%; Meta Platforms Inc., 3.63%; Microsoft Corp., 9.53%; Nvidia Corp., 4.96%; Tesla Inc., 0.96%; Exxon Mobil Corp., 0.03%; AT&T, 0%; and General Motors, 0%. ​

Fre​d Alger Management​, LLC​ / ​100 Pearl Street, New York, NY 10004 / www.alger.com​​ ​/ 212.806.8800
​

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ETF Investors

This ETF is different from traditional ETFs.

Traditional ETFs tell the public what assets they hold each day. This ETF will not. This may create additional risks for your investment. Specifically:

You may have to pay more money to trade the ETF’s shares. This ETF will provide less information to traders, who tend to charge more for trades when they have less information.

The price you pay to buy ETF shares on an exchange may not match the value of the ETF’s portfolio. The same is true when you sell shares. These price differences may be greater for this ETF compared to other ETFs because it provides less information to traders.

These additional risks may be even greater in bad or uncertain market conditions.

The differences between this ETF and other ETFs may also have advantages. By keeping certain information about the ETF confidential, this ETF may face less risk that other traders can predict or copy its investment strategy. This may improve the ETF’s performance. If other traders are able to copy or predict the ETF’s investment strategy, however, this may hurt the ETF’s performance. For additional information regarding the unique attributes and risks of this ETF, please refer to the prospectus.

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