'Tis the Season of Market Gains?
As we approach December, it seems appropriate to ask: does the holiday season bring gifts to investors? Statistically speaking, it often has begun a stretch of relatively higher stock market returns. While the past is no guarantee of the future, examining historical patterns can help set expectations at this traditionally auspicious time.

  • Over the past 30 years, the month of December has produced the best returns of any individual month for U.S. large cap stocks—more than 2% on average. December has also been the most consistently positive month, generating positive returns 83% of the time.

  • During the same span of years, the six-month period beginning with December and ending with May has returned an average of 7.8% in U.S. large cap stocks, more than two times the 3.5% average return of the following six-month period of June to November.

  • Though we advise investors to take a long-term view of the stock market, it is encouraging to know that we are entering what is typically a jolly season for U.S. equities.

*Source: Alger and FactSet. Note: The six-month average returns were calculated as an arithmetic average of the cumulative returns for December through May and separately June through November during the period of December 1, 1987 through May 31, 2017.

The views expressed are the views of Fred Alger Management, Inc. as of Novemeber 2017. These views are subject to change at any time and they do not guarantee the future performance of the markets, any security or any funds managed by Fred Alger Management, Inc. These views are not meant to provide investment advice and should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell securities.​

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